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AAR Campus Archives Audiovisuelles de la Recherche (Campus AAR) est une plateforme communautaire destinée à l'analyse, la documentation la mise en valeur, et la publication de corpus audiovisuels numériques archivés sur MédiHal.

A Roadmap to Assess the Economic Cost of Climate Change with an Application to Hurricanes in the United States.New Methodologies and Interdisciplinary Approaches in Global Change Research (International Symposium, Porquerolles, France 2008).


Description : This talk presents a methodological roadmap to assess macro-economic damages from climate change. To do so, it explores a single manifestation of climate change in a single location: an increase in hurricane intensity in the United States. The presentation starts from a global climate change, and follows the causal chain to total macro-economic losses. First, the large-scale change is downscaled to a spatial scale pertinent to investigate socio-economic impacts. Here, the Emanuel hurricane model is used to estimate present and future local landfall probabilities. Second, a statistical analysis of historical landfalls is used to translate these probability changes into direct economic losses. The paper also discusses several adaptation strategies that could be implemented to limit these losses. Finally, a modified Input-Output model is used to investigate indirect losses due to macroeconomic mechanisms and feedbacks. This model translates the changes in direct losses into changes in total losses. The model suggests that total losses increase non-linearly, amplifying the role of the most extreme events. The paper then proposes adaptation strategies that can reduce indirect losses by improving the ability of the economy to reconstruct and deal with the consequences of disaster.
Contributeur : Peter Stockinger Connectez-vous pour contacter le contributeur
Soumis le : samedi 10 novembre 2018 - 16:33:49
Dernière modification le : lundi 11 avril 2022 - 15:56:29
Archivage à long terme le : : lundi 11 février 2019 - 13:58:20